Forecasters warn for a coming Atlantic hurricane season.
A strong Atlantic hurricane season with explosive tropical development is being predicted by record-high ocean temperatures.
Since about a month ago, there haven’t been any tropical storms in the Atlantic basin, and none have even approached the United States this year. However, in a little more than a week, the Atlantic hurricane season’s busiest period will begin.
Experts are advising people to make their safety preparations and get ready for the trouble that the Atlantic hurricane season may occur within the next several weeks as a result of the intense ocean heat.
An increase in Atlantic hurricane season’s activity is currently predicted by a growing body of expert opinion. In comparison to the near-normal prognosis it issued in May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest outlook released on Thursday predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.
Matthew Rosencrans, lead Atlantic hurricane season forecaster of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, stated in a news release that they have increased the probability for above-average activity to 60% from 30%. The odds of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season are now approximately about 15%.
In a week or two, circumstances will become more favorable for tropical development, Rosencrans told CNN, giving moderate optimism in this prognosis. Additionally, forecasters are focusing on the open Atlantic’s potential for development throughout this time and into September, a prediction that fits with conventional climatology.
Researchers from Colorado State University and other professionals in the area, such as NOAA forecasters, have lately raised their Atlantic hurricane season risk outlooks.
Several climatological elements, as well as the unusually warm oceans, which give storms the fuel they need to intensify quickly, are taken into consideration in the forecasts. According to NOAA, sea surface temperatures were higher than expected, which significantly increased the likelihood of an active Atlantic hurricane season.
Given those elements, the current prediction calls for increased activity, thus Rosencrans urged everyone to get ready for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
Ocean temperatures are at their highest points ever recorded. This is especially apparent in the Atlantic, where sea surface temperatures in zones where hurricanes generally form are significantly higher than average.
Since Hurricane Don passed over the Atlantic Ocean in late July, despite the quantity of very warm water, no tropical development has taken place there. Five named storms have formed this season, which is slightly more than the climatological average for tropical activity despite the fact that there have been no US impacts to date.
Recent indications suggest that the tropical Atlantic hurricane season may soon come to life. Wind shear, which is the difference in wind strength at various levels of the atmosphere, and dry air, which can cut off a storm’s lifeblood, have caused several thunderstorm zones to come dangerously near to developing before being torn apart.
In recent weeks, warm ocean water has generally lost out to wind shear and dry air, which has slowed hurricane activity. This is not entirely unexpected because wind shear normally peaks at the beginning of Atlantic hurricane season and progressively decreases through July and into August. But it is unclear how much of a decrease in wind shear and dry air will actually take place as we approach the normal Atlantic hurricane season’s height.
Notably, El Nio, an ocean and weather trend that normally encourages an increase in wind shear and reduces the activity of Atlantic hurricane seasons, is present and expanding in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nio’s effect, according to Rosencrans, has not yet reached the Atlantic, although it may do so in September. He claimed that there were already indications of wind shear reducing over some areas in the Atlantic where hurricanes typically develop and that lower-than-average wind shear was expected for the season, which has been taken into consideration when anticipating a spike in activity.
Even if tropical activity doesn’t increase drastically over the coming weeks, any storm that develops over unusually warm water without wind shear to prevent it has the potential to rapidly intensify and become dangerous. Furthermore, if a tropical system is able to access the tremendous energy present in the hot water present close to densely populated portions of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, a catastrophe might occur swiftly.