Polling analyst and political model Nate Silver predicts that Republican candidate Donald Trump is the favorite to win this year’s presidential election, despite the Democratic camp.

According to the model, Trump has a 61.3% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has a 38.1% chance of winning. The model works by simulating 40,000 surveys based on existing surveys and other factors.

But the sample also showed that Trump was too heavily favored (53.5%) to win Harris’ popular vote, as Democrats did in the previous two elections when Republicans defaulted.

“Harris is the popular vote and the Electoral College leader, but she’s much younger than Biden,” Silver said. When Silver launched the model last month, it showed Trump had a 65.7 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while President Joe Biden had only a 33 percent chance. 7% chance.

“Here’s the headline: The presidential election is not a mess,” Silver wrote at the time. “If the polls look anything like they did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in big trouble if the vote is tied. So frankly, any pundits who think Biden is more than 1 point ahead in national polls seem to be missing the point.”

While Silver still finds Trump popular, there were encouraging signs for Harris; her efforts to build a caucus within the Democratic Party and a poll released Tuesday showing her with a four-point lead over Trump in a tight race in Pennsylvania.