Today has been a day full of tracking the potential with our upcoming winter storm. While several questions remain, it appears likely that high impacts will be set for our region throughout the day on Monday! Our first winter storm will feature everything from snow, sleet, and potentially ice.
Earlier this afternoon, the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm WARNING for all of the counties that you see shaded in pink. This is a zone where it seems quite certain that snow and sleet will bring a high impact.
At this time, Winter Storm WATCHES remain in effect for the blue counties to the north. This is where several questions remain about where exactly the heaviest snow sets up.
Regardless, all of these alerts start after sunset on Sunday and go through early Tuesday morning.
Throughout the day, our weather models have come in, showing a bit of a split decision. Some of our models, such as the European, favor a southern track that puts the heaviest snow in Southern MD. Other models, like the American, favor a northern track with mixing issues in Southern MD and heavier snows in the northern DC area.
Our high-resolution modeling is just now coming into focus (as it only goes out 48 hours). It shows what I believe to be the most likely scenario. I do believe that all areas will see a period of snow early Monday morning. However, given the warm, moist air that is being brought up to create the snow, I do still believe that a mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible south of DC. This may be possible for a few hours during the midday period on Monday.
Our Futureview model shows snow moving in after sunset. Periods of moderate snow are possible as the cold air remains in place. However, a track slight to the north allows for warmer air to push into southern zones and cause a change over to a wintry mix. It’s important to note, though, that this model only goes out through 1pm Monday. Additional snow and sleet are possible (if not likely) Monday evening.
Many locations are likely to remain at or below freezing throughout this event. However, the potential game changer is the temperature of the air thousands of feet above our heads. That push of moisture may work to warm a slice of the column of air enough to allow for that sleet or freezing rain. This is something to watch between 8am-2pm on Monday as a battle zone may set up!
This evening, our blend of models shows that widespread impactful snow remains quickly across the region. We currently see a stripe of 6″+ snowfall amounts through the northern DC suburbs here. There is uncertainty with where that band sets up. While I believe it;s placement on model blend is correct, it is very possible that this band ends up to the south. Lots of uncertainty! Buy you can see that we are talking about a general 4-8″ of snow!
Southern areas will see high impacts regardless. If the track ends up north, we will see moderate snow and sleet that, together, cause high impacts. If we see a southern track, then we heavy snow. In a southern solution, northern areas will see reduced snow amounts, which is why the watch remains there.
I will be publishing my final call forecast tomorrow. However, you can access my snow forecast from this morning below. There will be some changes to this forecast that are required. We also will need to iron out better where the band of heavy snow will set up.
Stay with JB Weather for the latest information on impacts here in Southern Maryland and across the Mid-Atlantic. You can always access my forecasts and updates here on the website, on Facebook, on Twitter, on Instagram, and on YouTube. JB Weather is the Mid-Atlantic’s Weather Leader, and I am working around the clock to keep you ahead of any storm!
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