There has been much talk about a flip to a colder pattern to kick off the new year. And, for the most part, we seem to be on track with that. Temperatures are set to go below average for the better part of the next two weeks (at least). And now, it looks like we may have a winter weather threat to go with the cold!
An area of low pressure is set to cross the Plains this weekend as cold air settles into the region. With a strong moisture feed aiding the system, a band of winter weather is looking increasingly likely along and north of the eventual track. The National Weather Services outlines the areas in dark blue and purple as having a moderate-to-high chance to sea impactful winter weather early next week.
Yesterday, we talked about the uncertainty with this system. The eventual track of this storm system will be very much reliant on the high pressure to the north of the system that will be delivering the cold air. If the high pressure is too strong (and thus we are too warm) the storm will be suppressed south. If the high pressure is too weak, the storm will cut north of our region.
Below are depictions (powered by Weather Bell) of how our computer models are handling this threat.
European Model
The European Model has long been regarded as our superior weather model. Right now, it shows our system taking a “Goldilocks track”. This is to say, it brings the storm north enough to bring precip to the Mid-Altantic but not too far north where it rains. This track would allow for a decent swath of winter weather to extend from the Ohio River Valley into the Mid-Altantic on Monday.
American Model
The American Model, on the other hand, is less impressive. While the track is decent for snow lovers, the system overall is rather weak. The precip is rather light and the cold air is somewhat shallow. This would lead to overall lower snow amounts on Monday.
I also have other models that track this system both north of our region into PA (allowing for more of a mix/rain solution) and south of our region into the Carolinas (winter weather would miss our region altogether to the south).
It is still far too early to say for certain what will happen. Those details will begin to come into focus tomorrow and Friday. What does seem certain is that our region has a real chance of snowfall from Sunday night into Monday. There are still questions about the exact track of this system, though. That means that there is far too much uncertainty to say when exactly snow will fall, where the heaviest will fall, and what impacts you will see in your backyard. To go with that, it is too early to even speculate on school, business, or travel impacts.
I have been professionally forecasting for over 11 years now. I have learned over the years to take a measured approach with setups like these, especially given the anticipation of potential weather weather. Today’s weather model runs (as shown above) are giving many Mid-Atlantic snow lovers hope. However, I caution you–this can and WILL change! It almost always does. I know many people would appreciate getting details and a sound forecast 5 days out. But any forecast right now would be low confidence and subject to immense changes. While it can be frustrating to read a forecast with such generalities at this point, this is what I can deliver right now with high confidence. Other outlets and personalities may choose to post snow maps 5 days out, and that’s their prerogative. I have seen that sort of activity lead to hype and clickbait and burn many people who choose to believe it. My word advice is to stay clear of all of that!
I will have additional updates throughout the week! As I learn more about the evolving atmospheric setup and its impact on this system, I share more detailed thoughts. With that said, there is reason for hope snow lovers! 🙂
Stay with JB Weather for the latest information on impacts here in Southern Maryland and across the Mid-Atlantic. You can always access my forecasts and updates here on the website, on Facebook, on Twitter, on Instagram, and on YouTube. JB Weather is the Mid-Atlantic’s Weather Leader, and I am working around the clock to keep you ahead of any storm!
-JB
Dr. Thomas Hao and Dr. Dylan Schneider offer comprehensive orthodontic services for all ages. Schedule your free consultation today. Visit www.SOMDBraces.com today for more information!